Archives for November 2013

In June I wrote an important blog post, based on the amount of Panda work I help companies with.  The post was about the maturing of Panda, and how Google planned to roll out the algorithm update once per month, while taking up to ten days to fully roll out.  Google also explained that it will not confirm future Panda updates.  After hearing both statements, I couldn’t help but think the new Panda could lead to serious confusion for many webmasters.  And I was right.

Let’s face it, Panda was already confusing enough for the average business owner.  Whenever I speak with Panda victims (which is often), I joke that Panda should have been titled “Octopus” instead.  That’s because there are many tentacles to Panda.  There are a number of reasons a site could get hit, and a deep analysis is often needed to determine what happened, why, and how to rectify the situation.  Sure, Panda focuses on “content quality”, but that could mean several things based on the nature of the website.

For example, I’ve seen affiliate content get hit, doorway pages, scraped content, heavy cross-linking of company-owned domains, duplicate content, thin content with over-optimized titles and metadata, etc.   And then you have technical problems that could cause content problems.  For example, code glitches that replicate content across large sites.  Those technical problems could impact thousands of pages (or more), and it’s one of the reasons I start every Panda engagement with a deep SEO technical audit.  What I find often helps me track down Panda problems, while having the added benefit of identifying other technical problems that can be fixed (and sometimes quickly).

Webmaster Confusion – My Prediction About The New Panda Was Unfortunately Spot-on
Believe me, I don’t want to pat myself on the back about my prediction, because I wish I was wrong.  But I have received many emails from webmasters since June that signal there is serious confusion with the new algorithm update.  And I totally get it.

An example of a Panda hit:

For example, if you wake up one morning and see a big drop in Google organic traffic, but have no idea why, then you might start researching the problem.  And when Google doesn’t confirm a major update like Panda, stress and tension increase.   That leads you to various blog posts about Google traffic drops, which only cause more confusion.  Then you grab your SEO, your marketing team, and developers, and hit a war room in your office.  Diagrams are drawn on large white boards, finger pointing begins, and before you know it, you’re in the Panda Zone, or a state of extreme volatility that can drive even the toughest CEO mad.  I know this because I have seen it first-hand many times with companies hit by Panda, from large companies to small.

 

Have There Been Additional Panda Updates As Expected?
Yes, there have been.  They’re just not easy to spot unless you have access to a lot of data.  For example, it’s easier to see the pattern of Panda updates when you are helping a number of companies that were impacted by our cute, black and white friend.  If those companies have been working hard on rectifying their Panda problems, then some may recover during the new, stealthy Panda updates.  Fortunately, I help a number of companies that were impacted by Panda, so I’ve been able to catch a glimpse of the cloaked Panda.

The last confirmed Panda update was July 18, 2013, even though that was after Google said it wouldn’t confirm any more Panda updates.  Go figure.  And by the way, I have data showing the update began closer to July 15.  Regardless, that was the last confirmed date that Panda rolled out.  But we know that wasn’t the last Panda update, as the algorithm graduated to quasi real-time.  I say “quasi” real-time, but some people incorrectly believe that Panda is continually running (part of the real-time algorithm).  That’s not true, and a recent webmaster hangout video explained more about the new Panda. Check 22:58 through 25:20 in the video to watch John Mueller from Google explain more about how Panda is currently handled.

In the video, John explains that Panda is not real-time.  Yes, read that again.  It is not real-time, but it has progressed far enough along that Google trusts the algorithm more.  That means the typical, heavier testing prior to rollout isn’t necessary like it once was.  Therefore, Google feels comfortable unleashing Panda on a more regular basis (once per month), and Matt Cutts explained that it could take ten days to fully roll out.

This is important to understand, since you cannot be hit by Panda at any given time during the month.  But, you can be impacted each month (positively or negatively) during the ten day rollout.  Based on what I have seen, Panda seems to roll out in the second half of each month.  July was closer to the middle of the month, where the August update was closer to the end of the month.  Here’s a quick timeline, based on Panda clients I have been helping.

Recent Undocumented Panda Sightings:
Cloaked Panda 1 – Monday, August 26

Cloaked Panda 2 – Monday, September 16

Those are two dates I saw recoveries with several Panda clients.  Also, if we start with the confirmed July update (which I saw starting on the 15th), you can see all three updates were during the second half of the month.  That could be random, but it might not be.

Regarding your own website and identifying impact from the new Panda, we need to remember the details of our new, stealthy friend.  If Google is telling us the truth, then it could take ten days for sites to see the impact from Panda.  So if you took a major hit near one of those dates, then you very well could have been hit by Panda.  And again, someone reviewing your site through the lens of Panda would be able to confirm if any content factors were at play (like I mentioned earlier).  That’s why a thorough Panda audit is so important.

Also, Panda hits are typically very apparent.  They aren’t usually slight increases or decreases.  Remember, Google is continually pushing smaller updates to its real-time algorithm, so it’s natural to see slight increases or decreases over time.  But significant changes on a specific date could signal a major algorithm update like Panda or Penguin.

Tips for Tracking Cloaked Panda Updates:
Now, you might be reading this post and saying, “Thanks for the dates Glenn, but how can this help me in the future?”  Great question, and there’s no easy answer.  Remember, the new Panda is hard to spot, and the Panda gatekeepers (Google) won’t tip you off about when it’s released.  But there are some things you can do to monitor the situation, and to hopefully understand when Panda rolls out.  I have provided some tips below.

1. Know Your Dates
First and foremost, identify the exact date of a drop or boost in traffic in order to tie that date with potential algorithm updates.  This goes for Panda, and other algorithm updates like Penguin.   It’s critically important to know which algorithm update hit you, so you can target the correct path to recovery.  For example, Panda targets content quality issues, while Penguin targets unnatural inbound links.  And then there was Phantom, which also targeted low-quality content.

Moz has an algorithm change history, which can be very helpful for webmasters.  But, it’s hard for Moz to add the stealthy Panda updates, since Google isn’t confirming them.  Just keep that in mind while reviewing the timeline.

2. Visit Webmaster Forums
Monitor Google Webmaster Forums to see if others experienced similar effects during the same date.  For example, when Penguin hits, you can see many webmasters explaining the same situation in the forums.  That’s a clear sign the algorithm update was indeed rolled out.  Now, Google is continually updating its algorithm, and sites can be impacted throughout the month or year.  So you must identify the same date and the same type of update.  It’s not foolproof, but might help you track down the Loch Ness Panda.

3. Connect With SEOs Well-Versed in Panda
Follow and engage SEOs that are focused on algorithm updates and who have access to a lot of data.  And keep an eye on the major industry blogs and websites.  SEOs that are well-versed in algorithm work have an opportunity to analyze various updates across industries and geographic locations.  They can often see changes quickly, and confirm those changes with data from similar websites and situations.

4. Take Action with an SEO Audit
Have an SEO Audit conducted through the lens of a specific algorithm update. The audit can help you confirm content quality problems that Panda could have targeted.  I’ve said this a thousand times before, but a thorough technical SEO audit is worth its weight in gold.  Not only can it help you understand the problems impacting your site Panda-wise, but you will undoubtedly find other issues that can be fixed relatively quickly.

So, you can better identify what happened with your site, you’ll have a roadmap for Panda recovery (if applicable), while cleaning up several other technical problems that could also be causing SEO issues.  During my career, I’ve seen many webmasters spinning their wheels working on the wrong SEO checklist.  They spent months trying to fix the wrong items, only to see no change at all in their Google organic trending.  Don’t let this happen to you.

5. Check Algorithm Tracking Tools
Monitor the various algorithm weather report tools like MozCast and Algoroo, which can help you identify SERP volatility over time.  The tools by themselves won’t fix your problems, but they can help you identify when the new Panda rolls out (or other major algorithm updates).

It’s Only Going to Get Worse and More Confusing
I wish I could tell you that the situation is going to get better.  But it isn’t.  Panda has already gone quasi real-time, but other algorithm updates will follow.  I do a lot of Penguin work, and once Google trusts that algorithm more, it too will launch monthly and without confirmation.  And then we’ll have two serious algorithm updates running monthly with no confirmation.

And who knows, maybe Panda will actually be part of the real-time algorithm at that point.  Think about that for a minute… two major algo updates running throughout the month, neither of them confirmed, and webmasters losing traffic overnight.   Yes, chaos will ensue.  That’s even more reason for business owners to fix their current situation sooner than later.

By the way, if you take a step back and analyze what Google is doing with Panda, Penguin, Pirate, Above the Fold, etc., it’s incredibly powerful.  Google is crafting external algorithms targeting various aspects of webspam and then injecting them into the real-time algorithm.  That’s an incredibly scalable approach and should scare the heck out of webmasters that are knowingly breaking the rules.

Summary – Tracking Cloaked Pandas Can Be Done
Just because Google hasn’t confirmed recent Panda updates doesn’t mean they aren’t occurring.  I have seen what looks to be several Panda updates roll out since July.  Unfortunately, you need to be analyzing the right data (and enough data) in order to see the new, cloaked Panda.  The tips I provided above can help you better track Panda updates, even when Google won’t confirm each release.  And knowing a major algorithm update like Panda rolled out is critically important to understanding what’s impacting your website.  That’s the only way to form a solid recovery plan.

So, from one Panda tracker to another, may the algorithmic wind always be at your back, keep your eyes peeled, stay caffeinated, and monitor the wounded.  Good luck.

GG

 

 

 

 

Summary: I analyzed the first double Penguin recovery I have come across during my research (after the Penguin 2.1 update). But what I found could reveal a glitch in the Penguin algorithm. And that glitch could be providing a false sense of security to some business owners.

If you have followed my blog and Search Engine Watch column, then you know I do a lot of Penguin work.  I started heavily analyzing Penguin 1.0 on April 24, 2012, and have continued to analyze subsequent Penguin updates to learn more about our icy friend.  I’ve had the opportunity to help many companies deal with Penguin hits, and have helped a number recover (and you can read more about those recoveries via several case studies I have written).  It’s been fascinating for sure.  But it just got even more interesting, based on analyzing a site that recovered during Penguin 2.1.   Read on.

Penguin 2.1 rolled out on October 4, 2013, and based on my analysis, it was bigger and badder than Penguin 2.0.   Matt Cutts confirmed that was the case during Pubcon (which was great to hear, since it backed up what I was seeing).  But as I documented in one of my recent Search Engine Watch columns, Penguin 2.1 wasn’t all bad.  There were recoveries, although they often get overshadowed by the carnage.  And one particular recovery during 2.1 caught my attention and deserved further analysis. That’s what I’ll cover in this post.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Introducing The Double Penguin Recovery
I believe it’s important to present the good and the bad when discussing Penguin updates, since there are still some people in the industry who don’t believe you can recover.  But you definitely can recover, so it’s important to document cases where companies bounce back after completing hard Penguin recovery work.

An example of a Penguin recovery:

Now, there is one thing I hadn’t seen during my past research, and that’s an example of a company recovering twice from Penguin.  I’m not referring to a company that recovers once, gets hit again, and recovers a second time.  Instead, I’m referring to a company that initially recovers from Penguin, only to gain even more during a subsequent Penguin update.

Now that would be an interesting case to discuss… and that’s exactly what I saw during Penguin 2.1.  Interested?  I was too.  :)

Double Penguin Recoveries Can Happen
After Penguin 2.1, I analyzed a website that experienced its second Penguin recovery.  The site was first hit by Penguin 1.0 on April 24, 2012, and recovered in the fall of 2012.  And now, with 2.1 on 10/4/13, the site experienced another surge in impressions and clicks from Google Organic.

The second Penguin recovery on October 4, 2013:

I’ve done a boatload of Penguin work since 2012, and I have never seen a double Penguin recovery.  So as you can guess, I nearly fell out of my seat when I saw the distinct bump on October 4, 2013.

Penguin Recoveries Lead To Penguin Questions
Based on the second recovery, the big questions for me (and I’m sure you as well), revolve around the reason(s) for the double recovery.  Why did this specific site see another surge from Penguin, when they already did in the past (after hard recovery work)?  Were there any specific factors that could have led to the second recovery?  For example, did they build more natural links, add high quality content, disavow more links, etc?  Or was this just an anomaly?  And most importantly, did Penguin help this website a second time, when it never should have?  In other words, was this a false negative (with the added benefit of a recovery)?  All good questions, and I hope to answer several of them below.

The Lack of Penguin Collateral Damage
I’ve always said that I’ve never seen collateral damage with Penguin.  Every site I’ve analyzed hit by Penguin (now 312), should have been hit.  I have yet to see any false positives.  But with this double recovery, we are talking about another angle with Penguin.  Could a site that shouldn’t see a recovery, actually recover?  And again, this site already recovered during a previous Penguin update.  Could this second recovery be a glitch in Penguin, or were there other factors at play?

History with Penguin
Let’s begin with a quick Penguin history for the website at hand.  It’s an ecommerce website that was devastated by Penguin 1.0 on April 24, 2012.   The site lost close to 80% of its Google Organic traffic overnight.

Initial Penguin Hit on April 24, 2012:

The site had built thousands of exact match and rich anchor text links over years from spammy directories.  The link profile was riddled with spam.  After the Penguin hit on 4/24/12, their staff worked hard on removing as many links as they could, contacted many directory owners (with some success), and then disavowed what they could not manually remove.  Yes, the disavow tool was extremely helpful for this situation.

The site recovered relatively quickly from Penguin (within two months of finishing the recovery work). The site recovered to about 40% of its original traffic from Google Organic after the Penguin recovery.  That made sense, since the site had lost a majority of links that were once helping it rank for competitive keywords.  Now that the unnatural links were removed, the site would not (and did not) recover to full power.  That’s because it never should have ranked highly for many of the keywords in the first place.  And this is where the site remained until Penguin 2.1.

Initial Penguin recovery in 2012:

And Along Came Penguin 2.1
After Penguin 2.1 hit, the site experienced an immediate surge in impressions and traffic from Google Organic (and this was crystal clear to see in Google Webmaster Tools).  I’m not sure anyone was expecting a second Penguin recovery, but there it was…  as clear as day.

Impressions were up over 50% and clicks were up close to 60% (when comparing the timeframe after Penguin 2.1 to the timeframe prior).   Checking webmaster tools revealed extremely competitive keywords that were once targeted by Penguin, now gaining in average position, impressions, and clicks.  Certain keywords jumped by 10-15 spots in average position.  Some that were buried in Google were now on page one or page two.  Yes, Penguin 2.1 was providing a second shot in the arm for the site in question.

Impressions and Clicks Increased Greatly After Penguin 2.1 Recovery:

It was amazing to analyze, but I couldn’t stop several key questions from overpowering my brain.  What changed recently (or over time) that sent the right signals to Google?  Why would the site recover a second time from Penguin?  And could other websites learn from this in order to gain the infamous double Penguin recovery?  I dug into the site to learn more.

What Changed, Why a Second Recovery?
What you’re about to hear may shock you.  It sure shocked me.  Let’s start with what might be logical.  Since Penguin is hyper-focused on links, I reviewed the site’s latest links from across Google Webmaster Tools, Majestic SEO, and Open Site Explorer.

If the site experienced a second Penguin recovery, then I would assume that new links were built (and that they were a heck of a lot better than what got the site initially hit by Penguin).  Google Webmaster Tools revealed a doubling of inbound links as compared to the timeframe when the site first got hammered by Penguin (April 2012).  Majestic SEO and Open Site Explorer did not show as much movement, but did show an increase.

I exported all of the new(er) links and crawled them to double check anchor text, nofollow status, 404s, etc.  And I paid special attention to the links from Google Webmaster Tools, since it showed the greatest number of new links since the first Penguin recovery.  It’s also worth noting that Majestic showed a distinct increase in backlinks in early 2013 (and that includes both the raw number of links being created and the number of referring domains).

Backlinks History Reveals More Unnatural Links Built in Early 2013:

Surely the natural, stronger linkbuilding was the reason the site experienced a double Penguin recovery, right?  Not so fast, and I’ll explain more about this next.  It seems Penguin might be glitchy.

More Unnatural Links = Double Penguin Recovery?  Crazy, But True
Believe me, I was really hoping to find stronger, natural links when checking the site’s latest link reporting.  But that wasn’t the case.  I found more spammy links from similar sources that got the site initially hit by Penguin in 2012.  Spammy directories were the core problem then, and they are the core problem now.  Actually, I could barely find any natural links in the new batch I checked.  And that was disturbing.

With all of my Penguin work (having now analyzed 312 websites hit by Penguin), I have yet to come across a false positive (a site that was hit that shouldn’t be hit).  But how about a site recovering that shouldn’t recover?  That’s exactly what this case looks like.  The site built more spammy links after initially recovering from Penguin, only to experience a surge in traffic during Penguin 2.1.  That’s two Penguin recoveries, and again, it’s the first time I have seen this.

The Danger of Heavily Relying on the Disavow Tool
To clarify, I don’t know if the site’s owner or marketing staff meant to build the newer spammy links.  Unnatural links tend to have an uncanny way of replicating across other low-quality sites.  And that’s especially the case with directories and/or article marketing.  So it’s possible that the older, spammy links found their way to other directories.

When You Disavow Links, They Still Remain (and Can Replicate):

This is why I always recommend removing as many links as possible versus relying on the disavow tool for all of them.  If you remove them, they are gone.  If you disavow them, they remain, and can find their way to other spammy sites.

What Does This Tell Us About Penguin?
To be honest, I’m shocked that Penguin was so wrong.  The initial Penguin recovery in 2012 was spot on, as the company worked hard to recover.  They manually removed a significant percentage of unnatural links, and disavowed the rest.  Then they recovered.  But now they experienced a second recovery, but based on the site building more unnatural links (and from very similar sources to the original unnatural links that got them hit in 2012).

So, is this a case of Penguin not having enough data on the new directories yet?  Also, did the company really test the unnatural link waters again by building more spammy links?  As mentioned above, I’ve seen spammy links replicate themselves across low-quality sites before, and that’s especially the case with directories and/or article marketing.  That very well could have happened, although it does look like the links were built during a specific timeframe (early 2013).  It’s hard to say exactly what happened.

Also, will the company eventually get hit by Penguin again (for a second time)?  It’s hard to say, but my guess is the surge in traffic based on Penguin 2.1 will be short-lived.  I cannot believe that the newer, unnatural links will go undetected by our icy friend.  I’m confident the site will get hit again (unless they move quickly now to remove and/or disavow the latest unnatural links).  Unfortunately, the site is teed up to get hit by Penguin.

Summary – Penguin 2.1 Was Wrong (for Now)
This was a fascinating case to analyze.  I have never seen a double Penguin recovery, and I have analyzed hundreds of sites hit by Penguin since April of 2012.  The website’s second recovery looks to be a mistake, as Penguin must have judged the new links as “natural” and “strong”.  But in reality the links were the same old spammy ones that got the site hit from the start.  They were just on different websites.

But as I said earlier, the site is now teed up to get hit by Penguin again. And if that happens, they will lose the power and traffic they have built up since recovering from the first Penguin attack.  If that’s the case, the site will have done a 360 from Penguin attack to Penguin recovery to second Penguin recovery and back to Penguin attack.  And that’s never a good place to be.

GG