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Archives for July 2023

Jarvis Rising – How Google could generate a machine learning model “on the fly” to predict answers when Search can’t, and how it could index those models to predict answers for future queries [Patent]

July 13, 2023 By Glenn Gabe Leave a Comment

Google machine learning models for predicting answers when search can't

After analyzing a Google patent related to PAA and PASF, I started reviewing other recently-granted patents. And it wasn’t long before I surfaced another very interesting one regarding the use of machine learning models. The patent I just analyzed focuses on using and/or generating a machine learning model in response to a query (when Google needs to predict an answer since the standard search results could not provide an adequate answer). After reading the patent multiple times, it underscored how sophisticated Google’s systems could be when needing to provide a quality answer (or prediction) for users.

Like with any patent, we never know if Google actually implemented what the patent covers, but it’s always possible. And if it was implemented, not only could Google be utilizing a trained machine learning model to help predict an answer to a query, but it can index those machine learning models, associate them with various entities, webpages, etc., and then retrieve and use those models for subsequent related searches. Think about how powerful and scalable that can be for Google.

In addition, the patent explains that Google can return an interactive interface to the machine learning model in the search results, which enables users to add parameters which can be used to generate a prediction for queries when the search results aren’t sufficient. That part of the patent had me thinking about the message Google rolled out in the SERPs in April of 2020 when there aren’t quality search results being returned for a query. The current implementation doesn’t provide a form for users to interact with, but it sure could at some point. And maybe that interface could be used for more queries in the future versus just the more obscure ones it surfaces for now. I’ll cover more about this in the bullets below.

Google's prompt that there aren't great matches for your search

Key points from the patent:
Similar to my last post covering another recent Google patent, I think the best way to cover the details is to provide bullets containing key points.

Generating and/or Utilizing a machine learning model in response to a search request
US 11645277 B2
Date Granted: May 9, 2023
Date Filed: December 12, 2017
Assignee Name: Google LLC

Diagrams from Google's patent about using machine learning systems to generate predictions

1. Google’s patent explains that if an answer cannot be located with certainty, and the user submits a request that is predictive in nature, a trained machine learning model can be used to generate a prediction.

2. For example, Google could first generate search results based on a query, but if the results aren’t of sufficient quality, then a machine learning model can be used to provide a stronger predicted answer. So, the system can provide predicted answers based on a machine learning model when an answer cannot be validated by Google.

Google's patent explaining that machine learning models can be used when there isn't a quality answer via search

3. Also, the machine learning model can be generated “on the fly”, and Google might store trained machine learning models in a search index. Yes, Google could index machine learning models that were just trained to provide predictions based on specific types of queries. I’ll cover more about this soon.

Training machine learning models on the fly and then indexing those models for future use

4. The patent provided an example based on the query, “How many doctors will there be in China in 2050?” If an authoritative answer cannot be provided via the standard search results, then the query can be passed to a trained machine learning model to generate a prediction.

An example of utilizing a machine learning model to generate a prediction

5. The patent goes on to explain that the system might take other years like 2010, 2015, 2020, etc. and use those to generate a prediction (via a machine learning model trained on those parameters).

6. The patent explains that trained machine learning models can be indexed by one or more content items from “resources utilized to train the model”. And for future queries, when the system identifies parameters that are related to a machine learning model (e.g. if a subsequent user asks a related question like, “How many doctors where there be in China in 2040?”), the machine learning model could be used to generate a prediction.

Machine learning models using parameters from a query to help generate a prediction

7. The patent goes on to explain that the machine learning models could be stored with one or more content items, like entities in a knowledge graph, table names, column names, webpage names, and more. In addition, words associated with the query like “China” and “doctors” could be used by the machine learning model to generate a prediction.

8. The patent goes on to explain that the system might provide an interactive interface for users to select parameters that can be passed to the machine learning model. That can be a text field, a dropdown menu, etc. Also, the response could include a message presented to the user that the response is a prediction based on a trained machine learning model. So Google wants to make sure users understand it’s a prediction based on a machine learning model versus answers provided based on data it has indexed.

Google providing an interactive interface enabling users to add parameters that can help generate an answer

9. The trained model can then be validated to ensure the predictions are of at least a “threshold quality”. Anything below a certain threshold can be suppressed and not provided to the user. In that case, the standard search results can be displayed instead.

Validating a response from a machine learning model trying to generate a prediction

10. Beyond public search results, the patent explains that the system could be used on a private database to help companies predict certain outcomes. The patent explains, “private to a group of users, a corporation, and/or other restricted sets.” For example, an employee of an amusement park might ask, “how many snow cones will we sell tomorrow?” The system could then query a private database to understand sales of previous days, weather information, attendance data, etc., to predict an answer for the employee.

11. The patent explains that the system could provide push notifications from an “automated assistant” at some point. And just thinking out loud, I’m wondering if that could be from a Jarvis-like assistant like I explained in my post about Google’s Code Red that triggered thousands of Code Reds at publishers. 

Push notifications from a machine learning model after it generates a prediction

12. From a latency standpoint, the patent explains that there could be a delay after a user submits a query. When that happens, the standard search results could be initially displayed along with a message that “good” results are not available for the query and that a machine learning model is being used to generate a prediction. In those situations, the system could push that prediction to the user at a later time or provide a hyperlink for users to click to view the machine learning output.

13. Also, the patent says for some situations that the user would have to affirm the prompt in order for the process to continue. For example, the system might provide a message stating, “A good answer is not available. Do you want me to predict an answer for you?” Then the machine learning model would be trained only if affirmative user input is received in response to the prompt. Like I explained earlier, I see a connection with the “There aren’t great matches for your search” message that rolled out in April of 2020. I’m wondering if that could expand to utilize this model in the future…

Prompting users to generate a prediction when search can't provide a quality answer

Summary: Google could be predicting quality answers in a powerful and super-efficient way via (indexed) machine learning models.
Although we don’t know if any specific patent is being used, the power and efficiency of this process makes a lot of sense for Google. From generating machine learning models “on the fly” to indexing those models for future use to utilizing an interactive interface with push notifications, Google seems to be setting the stage for an assistant like Jarvis. So, the next time you ask Google to predict an answer, think about this patent. And you might just be prompted for more information at some point (until Jarvis can do all of this in a nanosecond). :)

GG

Filed Under: google, patents, seo

Analysis of Google’s Perspectives Filter and Carousel – A New Mobile SERP Feature Aiming To Surface Personal Experiences

July 7, 2023 By Glenn Gabe Leave a Comment

Google Perspectives mobile search feature

On June 10, 2023 Google rolled out the much-anticipated Perspectives feature in the mobile search results. This was teased at Google I/O in May and aims to bring more personal experiences to the SERPs. For example, many people append “Reddit” to their searches to find personal recommendations and advice. Google basically knew that was a fail on their end and crafted Perspectives to address the situation.

Google acknowledges that users have grown frustrated by adding "Reddit" to their searches. Perspectives is one solution:

"HJ Kim said the Perspectives tab is one feature the company has been working on in response, but that it can do a better job…" https://t.co/I6wD4Uj69S pic.twitter.com/t0j1WaWuAN

— Glenn Gabe (@glenngabe) June 27, 2023

With Perspectives, Google explained it would provide a filter that users can tap to access content from forums, social networks, short-form video platforms, and more. Here is a quick example of what the Perspectives filter looks like:

Example of Google Perspectives in action

But that’s not it. Google also announced that there would be a sister search feature that would also contain perspectives. That hasn’t officially rolled out yet, but I have been in a number of tests where that carousel shows up. Here is a tweet where I provide some screenshots of the carousel:

Heads-up! Perspectives rolled out on 6/12 and officially last week, but now I'm seeing the sister SERP feature that Google said would show up in the 10 blue links. It's also labeled "Perspectives", provides cards for discussions, social, etc. & links to the Perspectives filter: pic.twitter.com/0NBEEPI31a

— Glenn Gabe (@glenngabe) June 29, 2023

So, how powerful is the new Perspectives feature? Like many other things in SEO, there’s a nuanced answer. I will attempt to address that below, along with my observations based on testing Perspectives, and the new Perspectives carousel. Let’s jump in.

First, some definitions. It’s confusing…
I know there is a lot of confusion about the various Perspectives features Google has rolled out recently, so I’ll quickly list them below.

The Perspectives Filter:
This is the official Perspectives filter that Google rolled out officially on June 23, 2023. It sits at the top of the SERPs with the rest of the filters and can show up first, or not.

The Perspectives Filter in the mobile search results

The Perspectives Carousel (still in testing):
This is the sister SERP feature to the Perspectives filter that I mentioned earlier. I’ll cover more about the carousel later in this post. I have seen this in several tests over the past few weeks and I expect it to roll out soon. Notice how there is both the filter and carousel below.

The Perspectives carousel being tested by Google

The Perspectives News feature:
Google also announced a Perspectives news feature that works with Top Stories. This rolled out before the Perspectives filter, and yep, it’s also labeled “Perspectives”. Confused yet? It’s meant to provide different perspectives about a specific news story.

Heads-up -> Google launches a new Top Stories feature called "Perspectives"

"This carousel will appear below Top Stories and showcase insights from a range of journalists, experts, and other relevant voices on the topic you’re searching for." https://t.co/tJSBggRKQ7 pic.twitter.com/rAQB9Wc7Sg

— Glenn Gabe (@glenngabe) March 28, 2023

Featured Snippets Containing Multiple Sources (formerly called “Perspectives”):
Well before the latest Perspectives filter rolled out, we saw a test of featured snippets containing multiple sources. That feature was initially labeled “Perspectives”, but then Google dropped the label. You can still find this feature in the wild containing multiple sources in gray bubbles (but without a Perspectives label). Again, it’s a bit confusing based on the use of “Perspectives” for various features.

The Perspectives featured snippet showing multiple sources

For the rest of this post, I’ll be referring to the Perspectives filter and its sister carousel feature. I won’t be focusing on the news feature or featured snippets containing multiple sources.

What Types Of Content Are Surfacing Via The Perspectives Filter?
The content being surfaced in Perspectives is heavily sourced from forums, social media platforms, video platforms, etc. Based on my testing, there is a ton of content from sites like Reddit and Quora, but you can also see niche forums there as well. From a video standpoint, there is a lot of YouTube video being surfaced in Perspectives. And to a lesser extent, TikTok videos are surfacing as well. And as you can guess, there are often tweets being surfaced in Perspectives as well.  

So, just like Google explained in its blog post about Perspectives:

“Tap the filter, and you’ll exclusively see long- and short-form videos, images and written posts that people have shared on discussion boards, Q&A sites and social media platforms. We’ll also show more details about the creators of this content, such as their name, profile photo or information about the popularity of their content.”

Content surfacing in Google Perspectives

Meet The Perspectives *Carousel* – The Sister SERP Feature To The Filter
I mentioned the sister SERP feature to the filter earlier and it’s another mechanism for surfacing Perspectives in the search results (and in a more visible way). I have been in several tests where the Perspectives filter shows up at the top of the SERP, but there’s also a Perspectives carousel containing several cards leading downstream to forums, social media sites, video platforms, etc. The content in the carousel seems to be extremely forum-heavy at this stage, but it can contain links to social networks, video, and more.

So, if Google really believes you want to find various perspectives on a topic, you might see both the filter and the carousel. Again, that jumps the visibility of Perspectives greatly.

In another test where I'm seeing the new Perspectives SERP feature (the sister feature to the Perspectives filter). It's a carousel containing forum-heavy content. And when you tap the "More" button, you trigger the Perspectives filter. I'll keep that window open for a bit. :) pic.twitter.com/u4MVhgQJVh

— Glenn Gabe (@glenngabe) July 1, 2023

Visibility Challenges for Perspectives – Needing to swipe heavily to view the filter.
Although the Perspectives filter triggers an interesting SERP containing forum threads, videos, social media posts, and more, you need to find it first in order for it to be helpful. The filter’s position is fluid, meaning it sometimes shows up as the first filter in the list, but it can show up much farther in. And when it’s located farther in, I question how many people will see it, tap it, etc. You basically have to swipe through many filters to see it…

For example, I had to swipe through nine filters to see the Perspective filter for this query. I’m not sure anyone is seeing the filter when searching for this topic:

Swiping to see the Perspectives filter

Tracking Challenges – Google Needs To Bring A Perspectives Filter To GSC!
Now, you might be thinking that tracking the feature in Google Search Console (GSC) will enable you to view how the filter’s placement impacts impressions, clicks, and click through rate. But, that’s not an easy thing to accomplish. As of now, you can’t isolate Perspectives in GSC.

It’s also important to note that tapping the filter does not trigger a new query with a fresh SERP, so tracking Perspectives is going to be incredibly challenging. For example, if I search for “X”, there is the initial SERP containing the default search listings. Those initial listings gain impressions based on the search. But if I trigger the Perspectives filter, a fresh list of content surfaces, but the query doesn’t change. Then the new Perspectives listings technically receive impressions (but for the same query as earlier). And if I tap one result to visit the forum, video, etc., then that listing receives the click. But… site owners won’t know if someone clicked through the original SERP or the Perspectives SERP. Confusing, right?

To me, a Perspectives filter in GSC is absolutely necessary. Then you would be able to filter by Perspectives and view impressions, clicks, click-through rate, and position for the content that ranked in the feature. Without the filter in GSC, good luck.

Here is a mockup of what the filter could look like in Search Console:

A Perspectives filter in Google Search Console (mockup)

YMYL – It’s a sensitive situation.
For many “Your Money or Your Life” queries, the Perspectives filter doesn’t trigger at all. Google is clearly being very cautious with YMYL topics for now… This could change since there are many forums focused on health and medical topics, financial topics, etc., but Google does not want to drive users to risky information when searching for sensitive topics. Time will tell, but it’s worth noting that the filter is not present for many queries focused on YMYL topics.

And here's another example of a health/medical query where the Perspectives filter doesn't show up. It's for "best ways to avoid flu". No filter again. Just a heads-up if you focus on health/medical. pic.twitter.com/1jqntSWmDR

— Glenn Gabe (@glenngabe) June 12, 2023

“Best” Queries – A Big Heads-up For Affiliate Marketers
For affiliate marketers out there, this is a giant heads-up that the Perspectives shows up often for “best” queries. And when it does, it’s often showing up first in the list. When you tap the filter, the affiliate content on page one could disappear and the user is presented with forum content, short videos, social media posts, etc. This could obviously impact affiliate revenue heavily. If you provide reviews content, then I would keep a close eye on this. And again, a GSC filter would be amazing for tracking this… If not, it will be hard to identify what’s going on with the Perspectives filter and carousel. You might see clicks and click-through rate drop if people are heavily using the Perspectives filter for “best” queries impacting your site. I haven’t seen that situation yet in GSC… but it could happen based on the Perspectives filter.

Google Perspectives for best product queries

Filtering the Filter: Google Can Control When The Perspectives Filter Shows Up Based On Referring Source or Surface
After searching for product recommendations, you can often see a “More products” card show up in Discover. When tapping that button, Google drives you to a fresh SERP with a search for that product (or product category). I noticed that when that happens, you don’t see a Perspectives filter show up at all. But if you visit Google directly and search for that query, the filter does show up. So Google is basically filtering the Perspectives filter when you are visiting from that Discover card. Just an interesting note that the filter can be filtered based on referring Google surface.

First, here is a “More products” card in Discover driving me to Google Search:

More products button in Google Discover

But when I visit Google Search, the Perspectives feature doesn’t show up at all. But it does show up if I visit a fresh SERP and search for that query. Here is the SERP without the Perspectives filter after tapping the “More products” card in Discover:

Perspectives filter not showing up when visiting from Discover

The Perspectives To Explore Connection – Understanding Google Explore just got more important.
I have covered Google Explore heavily since it started being tested in the spring of 2022. It’s a Discover-like SERP feature containing large visuals and links to publishers, video content, etc. You can often see Explore show up at the end of a mobile SERP.

Well, a funny thing is happening with Perspectives… The Perspectives SERP rolls right into Google Explore! If you scroll down in Perspectives, you will eventually see Explore show up. And that’s why I dubbed this scenario the “Perspectives to Explore Connection”. It’s just another angle to Perspectives that I would review if you are publishing a lot of content.

And by the way, you can’t track this easily in GSC either.

You can see a video below of the transition in action where I scroll through Perspectives revealing Google Explore at the end:

Here's a video of the Perspectives filter in action. Notice how far I need to swipe to find it. And then interesting to see how the results transition to Google Explore at the end. Let's call that the 'Perspectives to Explore connection'. Try and track that in GSC. :) pic.twitter.com/rhpReqE2ie

— Glenn Gabe (@glenngabe) June 10, 2023

Summary – Will Perspectives Drive Change In the SERPs?
After heavily testing Perspectives, I think it’s an interesting feature containing a range of content. But, it’s sometimes unfortunately buried in the filter list. And the content is questionable for certain queries (with dated content surfacing or content that’s not relevant to my current situation). The addition of the Perspectives carousel could help with visibility and usage, but that hasn’t fully rolled out yet. And the lack of tracking in Search Console will make it very difficult for site owners to understand when users are engaging with Perspectives content. Time will tell how Perspectives evolves, but for now there are some challenges for adoption, usage, etc. I’ll update this post if Google implements bigger changes on this front. Stay tuned.

GG

Filed Under: google, mobile, seo

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